Odds for the World Series

While all the recent talk around MLB centers on Mark McGwire and steroids, it’s easy to forget that Spring Training is creeping up.

Cactus League play begins on March 3 and Grapefruit League starts a day before that.

This is a good time to look at the future baseball odds to win World Series that sportsbook currently have posted.

New York Yankees

When we last left MLB, the New York Yankees were hoisting their 27th World Series title.

The “Evil Empire” will enter the 2010 season as defending champions and as a matter of fact, the Yanks are odds-on favorites to repeat at +300.

The Bronx Bombers’ roster will look a little different going into the season as 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui migrated west to the Los Angeles Angels and his place in the lineup, as it stands, will be taken by Nick Johnson, according to an mlb.com report.

The Pinstripes re-signed southpaw Andy Pettitte to a one-year deal and dealt outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitchers Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino along with some cash to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for righty Javier Vazquez and lefty Boone Logan, who was subsequently signed for one year.

In Vazquez’s last 16 starts last season, the Braves went 12-4.

Philadelphia Phillies

On first glance, the fact that the Phillies traded away pitcher Cliff Lee to Seattle doesn’t make sense, as Lee went 13-4 (including the playoffs) after joining the Phillies from Cleveland in late-July.

In the postseason Lee went 4-0 with an ERA of 1.56 and he was on the mound for both of Philadelphia’s World Series victories.

But when you factor in that Philadelphia added Roy Halladay to its rotation, there is logic behind the Lee deal.

Doc Halladay started 32 games for the Toronto Blue Jays last year and had a record of 17-10 with an ERA of 2.79 and will be a welcome addition to the Phillies’ pitching staff.

Philly is listed at +600 to win this year’s World Series and if it does, it would be its second title in three years.

New York Mets

The New York Mets fell well short of expectations last season, finishing with a record of 70-92 so there was a need to bolster the roster with the 2010 season approaching.

While the Yankees are the ones that usually make the big splashes in free agency, the Mets one-upped their cross-town rivals this offseason, in terms of big-name signings, when they inked former Boston Red Sox leftfielder Jason Bay to a four-year deal.

The Mets are hoping that Bay will be a big piece of the puzzle in their pursuit of the NL East title and hopefully, a World Series.

The Metropolitans are listed at +1900 to win it all in 2010.

Seattle Mariners

Despite not making the playoffs last year, the Seattle Mariners still had a relatively successful season, going 85-77.

If its offseason is any indication of how its regular season will be, Seattle should make the playoffs or better.

As mentioned, the club traded for Philly’s playoff ace Cliff Lee and it did a number of other things to improve.

The Mariners plucked 3B Chone Figgins away from the division rival Los Angeles Angels; re-signed Ken Griffey Jr. to a one-year deal and extended young ace Felix Hernandez’s deal by five years.

The only move that can be considered something of a head-scratcher is the trade for volatile Chicago Cubs outfielder Milton Bradley.

Seattle is listed at +1600 to win the World Series in MLB futures betting.

Spring Training will be starting up again soon and shortly after that, the start of another MLB season.

Please visit SPORTSBETTING.com for all your online sports betting needs.

Not Shedding Any Tears Over Holliday

As expected, the St. Louis Cardinals signed outfielder Matt Holliday to a 7 year 120 million deal. The Orioles had been mentioned as “laying in the weeds on Holliday.” (Sorry for no links to articles. I’m having to re-learn WordPress since it’s changed in my absence. Bear with me.) But nothing came about. I’m not upset over losing out on Holliday. He’s a great player and it’d be great to have an outfield of Holliday, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis. Nolan Reimold could move to DH. Felix Pie could remain 4th outfielder. Holliday could have DH’ed from time to time. Luke Scott could have been dealt (I suspect he will at some point none the less).  I can live with the current status quo in the outfield.  It’s a great young outfield. The outfield is one of the few strengths of this team. Holliday would have been gravy. Expensive gravy at that.

If Holliday played 1st base, 3rd base, or shortstop then I would have been quite a bit more passionate about the signing. Those are positions that need help and long term solutions. Giving away the farm for Matt Holliday certainly wasn’t the answer.

I’m back

Its been awhile since I posted here or for that matter posted on any blogs. Of course I left here and went to blog at MVN and left shortly before MVN’s tragic demise. I’m back here again. Its ironic how life can run in circles sometimes. Now that that’s out of the way, its time to look at some of the Orioles’ moves thus far in the offseason.

• Mike Gonzalez was signed to a two year deal worth 12 million total plus another 4 million in incentives. Gonzalez will shore up the bullpen and will likely be the closer (he saved 10 games for the Braves this past season). The Braves will get the O’s second round pick (44th overall at the moment) since Gonzalez was a type A free agent. I like this signing much more than spending a lot more money for Jose Valverdae or Fernado Rodney. Its short term and strengths the bullpen. I can live with it.
• The O’s filled Melvin Mora’s vacancy at third with Garrett Atkins. Atkins gets a one year deal worth 4.5 million (plus 500k in incentives) with a club option worth 8.5 million for 2011. It has a 500k team buyout that I’m sure will get exercised. Atkins isn’t anything to worked up about but he’s a place holder for Josh Bell. He can play third and first. Its basically a one year deal that buys some time for the minor leaguers to get ready and anything Atkins produces will be gravy.
• Chris Ray was traded to the Texas Rangers for Kevin Millwood. The Rangers also send 3 million to the O’s for part of Millwood’s salary. Millwood gives Baltimore a legit veteran starter who can eat some innings and pitch pretty good. Its much better than having faith in Steve Trachsel and Russ Ortiz. Millwood can hold his own, log some innings to save the bullpen, and help the young pitchers develop. For Chris Ray, its a good pick up. Ray had a promising first year a couple years ago as a closer but injuries derailed him. Hopefully, he can comeback strong this coming season for Texas. I always liked him even though he became through unreliable.
• The O’s were mentioned as interested long shots for Free Agent OF Matt Holiday and Padres long time trade canidate first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Holiday will be expensive and require some trades since the O’s outfield one of the teams few strengths. Markakis in Right, Jones in Center, Reimold in Left, and Pie on the bench. I don’t see the need to spend a lot of money on Holiday unless there’s something bigger in the grand scheme of things. Gonzalez would be nice but would require giving up some top prospects. It’d take more than Chris Ray to pry him away from San Diego.  

2010…and Beyond…

Well, needless to say the Orioles franchise has been pretty pathetic since the 90’s.  It seems forever since I can remember a playoff appearance or even a winning season.  Lately though it seems the front-office is doing things to give us fans hope for the future.  It actually seems like they care.  There is a nice young fresh crop of talent on this team. Some of them have been on the team a few years and some are fresh meat.  Regardless though, there is a core of players on this team that really seemed motivated and dedicated to taking the next step.  Adam Jones is in line to become a super-star in this league.  I really believe that.  Nick Markakis should already be a super-star, but it’s tough to get love when you play in Baltimore.  Brian Roberts is the guy that seems to always help the team get thrings rolling by leading off the line-up.  Even though we only got a short look at Matt Weiters, I am very excited for this kid.  He seems as though he may have alot of All-Star appearances in his future.  See, there are guys on this team to get excited about.  This team needs to fill in some holes on defense, and definitely GET SOME PITCHING!!! Anything should be better then what we have now.  I have a friend who believes this team wil be competing for championships within 5 years.  I would like to believe that, I really would, but I need to see some more movement with the pitching staff.  Maybe even a free agent or two to help put it all together.  My question for you, fellow O’s fans, is what do you have planned for the future with this team?  What are your thoughts? Expectations?  Do you see the O’s going somewhere big in the near future? How about just for 2010?  For 2010, I just want to see us be closer to .500 or even above .500.  At some point this team is going to need to start showing they can compete instead of talking about how they will in the future.  Leave your comments below.

New Writer

Hello All!  I am a new writer on this Orioles blog.  I am a big Orioles fan, and I have been a big fan for as long as I can remember.  I am looking forward to writing on this blog, giving my opinons, opening up topics for debate, and recieving any feedback you all could possibly give me.  It’s the offseason so it might be slow going with late breaking news about the team, but I’ll try my hardest to write about things that could be interesting.  The offseason of any sport is the best time to put things in perspective and think about the good ol’ days and look forward to the future.  So keep reading.  Enjoy!!

O’s trade Freel to Cubs for Gathright

 Gathright (left) as a Royal with teamate Estaban German

Yesterday, the Baltimore Orioles traded yet again to the Cubs, sending OF Ryan Freel to Chicago for OF Joey Gathright in return. Personally, i think this is a great move on the Orioles behlaf, as Gathright is younger, faster, and at this point, better than Freel is. Freel was obviously upset about his situation in Baltimore, saying the AL is much different than the NL, where he spent almost his whole career in Cincinatti, one with Toronto in 2001, which was a September call-up before being involved in the Ramon Hernandez trade. He said he felt that there was no role as an Oriole, thats probably true. Espically after the O’s traded for Felix Pie and signed Ty Wigginton right after acquiring Freel. To add on to the whole situation, Freel was struggling in Baltimore, hitting .133 in 15 at-bats and 1 RBI. He also struck out 4 times. And he is 33 years old, and injurys hampered him again in Baltimore, where on a freak accident, was hit in the head on a botched pick-off throw against Boston.

Gathright is the better player in this deal, and i’ll show you why. Also being on the bench in Chicago, he was hitting .214 with a stolen base. My guess is he didnt like his situation in Chicago either. He is a good player just entering his prime at 28. He is a decent average hitter, a great outfielder, and has blazing speed, and thats what attracted the Orioles. I think the O’s found their starting LF for 2009 at least. He was optioned to AAA Norfolk, but i think he will work his way up and be on the Orioles roster by the middle of the month. He has been in platoon roles his whole career, his career high in at-bats was in 2006 (383) with Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Gathright doesnt have power, only 1 career homerun, but he is a good pick-up for the O’s. He could be a diamond in the rough if he gets the right oppurtunitys like Pie and Montanez have gotten this year.

Although, this probably puts a block on Lou Montanez, who will probably go back to AAA soon because of the Gathright acquisition, and Pie will probably be on the bench, as he is stuck behind Montanez as of now on the depth charts. The reason Pie will stay up and not Montanez is because Lou has options left and Felix does not. However, this does give the Orioles one of the fastest OF’s in the league with Markakis, Jones and eventually Gathright, as Gtahright has already had 3 20+ stolen base years in six najor league seasons. Trust me, i think you will be pretty pleased with Joey when he finally arrives, as he does fit that Orioles mold, as Freel did not.

Actually, if you look at it, Freel and Gathright are very similar if you compare the stats, but Freel has 800 more at-bats than Gathright. But all in all, the Orioles made the best decision possible for them and going forward with this organizations hopeful rise back to the top.

Thats it for now, check back soon for a new article.

                                                                                                             Logan Quick

Baez coming back strong

It has been an awesome start for Danys Baez. Just 13 months removed from major Elbow surgery, he is back on his way to being one of the top relievers in the game.  His best season came in 2005, with the Tampa Bay Rays. That season he made his one and only All-star game, and finished the year with a 2.86 ERA and 41 saves in 67 games. After a 2006 season with the Braves and Dodgers, he signed a 3yr/19 million dollar deal with the Orioles before the 2007 season. It quickly turned into a nightmare for Baez, as he had a bad ERA of 6.44 in 53 games. Then, it got worse for Baez. He missed all of 2008 with that elbow suregery previously mentioned.  Baez has been one of the top relievers in the game, as he has a 3.99 ERA, 114 saves, 33 holds and 33 wins in his 9th professional season. This is just a quick biography of Danys Baez.

Baez has been huge for the Orioles in 2009. He has been the Orioles most reliable reliever so far, as he has a 2.30 ERA in 9 games so far this seasom. He also has 13 strikeouts in 15 and 2/3 innings. He is also 2-1, for what its worth. I wouldnt be suprised if Baez was called on to close out some of the games with this shaky bullpen situation, as he has had success as a closer in the past. He had 96 saves in 3 seasons from 2003 to 2005 with Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The good thing about Baez is he is very hard to rattle, he always has ice in his veins and gets out of tough situations very regularly. He can also eat up innings, as he did come up as a starter, he had 10 wins in 26 starts in 2002. And he is just 31 right now, and has a good amount of good seasons left in him i think.

Even though he didnt do much in his 1st two seasons in Baltimore, this is a public service announcement. The Orioles need to re-sign him for 2010 at least. He is getting back to his old form, and that cant hurt the Orioles at all, as we know what he can do when he was on his game when he was a Ray. He also provides good vetern leadership and can teach these big top reliever prospects a thing or two about pitching in the majors. I was against him even making the team in spring training, unsure of how good he would be after the surgery, but he has become one of the Orioles big suprises of the early year, and am a big Baez fan this year, just like i was whe he first got to Baltimore.

  Thats it for now, check back tommorow for a new article.

                                                                                       Logan Quick

5/6 pre-game report- O’s vs Twins

The O’s are back home. They are taking on the Minnesota Twins today and tommorow for yet another 2-game series. The first game will be the Orioles Mark Hendrickson versus the Twins Kevin Slowey. The O’s are 10-17 and 8 games back from the lead in early May, and are trying to get back on track after losing 7 of our last 8 games. Now that you have the breakdown, i will give you the keys to the game.

#1- Shut down Slowey- The 25 year old Texan is doing well again in 2009. He is 4-0 with an unspectacular 5.17 ERA. He can eat innings, averaging about 6 a game, and you have to hit him hard and early to beat him to the punch. He also has 23 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. Actually, this isnt the biggest concern, ill show you why he is 4-0 despite the 5.17 ERA, and thats the Minnesota offense, as they have scored 35 runs for him in 5 starts. let me explain.

#2- Slow down the Twins offense- like i just said, the Twins are tearing the cover off the ball lately. They are averaging 6.8 runs scored a game in their last 5 games and the Minnesota Twins have six hitters over the .300 mark, and have 19 homeruns in the early season, if Hendrickson can hold these guys in check in the littlest bit, our offense can jump on Slowey.

#3- Hendrickson has to pitch decent- That brings me to my next point. Hendrickson is 1-1 and has a 4.97 ERA in two career starts versus the Twins. If he can just throw strikes and avoid getting hit with the longball, he should be good for 5 or 6 innings. The longball has been a problem for Hendrickson in 2009, as he has allowed 7 in 23.1 innings. He needs to let the defense, which has been great lately, exept for last night, to make the plays when they come to them. Hendrickson is trying to improve on his 1-4 record and his 5.79 ERA, and his 4 start losing streak.

#4- top of the line-up needs to stay hot- Espically Brian Roberts, who is hitting .313 in 2009,   is 3 for 8 after an 0-18 slump. He hit .423 in 26 at-bats versus Minnesota in 2008, and needs to keep that success. Adam Jones (.350 AVG) and Nick Markakis (.356 AVG) also need to stay hitting for the O’s to have a chance in this game.

Prediction- It will be a high scoring game today. Both offenses are very potent, and can put up runs in a hurry. It all depends on which pitcher controls the damage the most, and what offense strikes hard first. My projected socre, Orioles 7- Twins 5.

Thats it for now, check back tommorow for a new article.

                                                        Logan Quick

Closer job up for grabs?

At the press conference of the O’s 4-3 loss to the Blue Jays and the end of the 3 game sweep of the O’s, manager Dave Trembley was asked a question about the closer situauton, and Trembley said it was ‘day-to-day’. Let me put this in other words:  other people than George Sherrill, the O’’s representative in the 2008 All-star game, will not be the only one getting save oppurtunities right now. Trembley said he will do what is best for the team to get back on track and start winning. 

Sherrill has struggled this season, going 4 for 6 in save oppurtunities, which is decent, but he has a 5.06 ERA and has allowed 3 homeruns, two which gave the opposing team the lead.  And it was noted in the Baltimore Sun that Sherill  is allowing righties to hit .394 off him in the early goings. Thats pretty bad. It also states that Trembley said that Sherrill is putting pitches in bad spots and is getting hit, spots he didnt put pitches in last season. And the most worrying stat is that Sherrill has blown 6 of his last 8 one-run lead save oppurtunities, and dating back to last year, is just 13 for his last 19. That is also, not good.

Who could be getting save chances you ask? Well, two names pop into mind, and thats the O’s top set-up guy in Jim Johnson, and O’s top long relief pitcher, Danys Baez. Johnson has a 2.70 ERA in 10 apperaences in 2009, posting 10 innings pitched and 7 strikeouts, while Baez has a 2.63 ERA in 8 appearences, posting 13 and 2/3 innings and 12 strikeouts. There is a good chance that both of these guys would be good closers, and im all for them getting a oppurtunity here and there, but i will give you a couple good reasons why not to push Sherrill out just yet.

For one, it is early, and it is only 6 oppurtunities. If it was 12 for 20, it would be a problem. Two, throwing someone else in the closer role could mess up some of the good things we have going in the otherwise sturggling bullpen. Johnson is one of the games top young set-up guys, and who are you going to put as the set-up guy if Johnson is closing? Sherrill will have some sort of adjustment going back to set-up duty, and his confidence might be damaged, and then you have Chris Ray, who is still looking to get back on track, posting a really bad 7.56 ERA. Then if you put Baez in, who do you have to pitch long relief? Albers and Sarfate, two long relievers you needed to do good, are sturggling and in AAA and the other is hurt. So then you have no long reliever. Not good.

Look, i cant say for certain that Sherrill will bounce back and be his old All-star form again, i just cant. Maybe the scouting report got out on him really fast, and he is having trouble counter-adjusting, I have no idea, im not George Sherrill. If he continues to struggle in a month or so, then look for a replacement for closer. But hey, if we do put in Johnson and he goes 10 for 10 with a .50 ERA, then thats that. But dont act like Sherrill is just a stopgap, because hes not. Here, ill give you a 80 percent chance he bounces back by the end of the month. I just have a hunch that he will be fine.

                                                         Logan Quick

Orioles minor leaguers still shining

It is early May, and the Orioles are struggling. The O’s started off 6-2, but since then are just 3- 14. It has mainly been the pitching that has let down in that stretch, such as players like Hendrickson, Eaton, Albers, Sarfate, Sherrill,Bass Ray, etc. And that brings me to my next question. Why are we letting these players continue to struggle when our minor leaguers down in AAA are still ripping it up?

You saw the last call up, when Sarfate went on the 15-day DL, we called up Bob McCroy, who in 9 games and 12 innings in Norfolk, posted a 2.25 ERA. Thats only one case of it. 9 of our 13 active pitchers have a 5.00 ERA or more, and that includes staff ace Jeremy Guthrie, who should be fine. 5 of the 13 have a 6.00 ERA or more, and 3 of them have a 7.00 or more. A freakin 7.00 ERA!

Take a guy like Ross Wolf. In 17 and a third innings, he has a 2.08 ERA. Wolf is already 26, and you’re telling me he isnt better than Brian Bass, or somebody like that? The stats beg to differ. I like what we have done with Montanez and Pie, even though they are stuggling as of late, we are letting them ride it out and hopefully they will find out what the flaw is with time. A guy like Wolf, or Jim Miller, guys who are 26 or 27, how are you supposed to know what they can do if you dont call them up? You cannot know if you never give them a chance. Guys like Miller and McCroy have had little stints in september before, but you have to give them more than 1 month. Look at Jim Johnson, he sucked as a starter for 2 little call-ups in 2006 and 2007, but in 2008 we switched him to set-up and we automatically found our top set-up guy.

A year like 2009 is the perfect year to call these kids up, not just the older prospects, guys like Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Nolan Reimold, Scott Moore, Matt Wieters, hell, even Jason Berken, who has done good in Norfolk in 2 starts, going 10 scoreless innings, allowing 4 hits and striking out 4. And then in 2010, Patton, maybe Matusz, etc will be ready. And bam! all of a sudden the Baltimore Orioles are contenders again, just they should be. It can happen, and hopefully the F.O see’s it. Andy Macphail has been talking about this for a couple years, and i think 2009 should be the testing year if we cant get back on track. Then you will see major, big results in 2010. And even bigger results in 2011. Its bound to happen, and i say right now is the time.

Check back soon for a new article tommorow

                                                                                                      Logan Quick